June 21, 2024 - As the summer solstice approaches, Hong Kong faces the prospect of a looming tropical cyclone in the South China Sea, despite differing weather model predictions. The Hong Kong Observatory has noted that while the coming days will bring persistently high temperatures due to a subtropical ridge influencing Guangdong, uncertainties remain about the weather developments over the weekend and into next week.
On this longest day of the year, temperatures in urban areas are expected to reach between 33 and 34 degrees Celsius. The observatory's latest weather analysis, titled "Storms Brewing in the South China Sea?", highlights the start of the wind season with the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Maliksi on May 30th and the subsequent active monsoon that brought severe storms to southern China in early June. However, a reduction in showers has been observed as the region succumbs to the heat.
The focus now shifts to a broad trough of low pressure, anticipated to affect the central and northern parts of the South China Sea over the weekend. This system could edge closer to the southern coast of China by early next week, potentially enhancing thunderstorms and showers across the region. The Observatory points out that while the warm sea temperatures provide ample energy for development, significant vertical wind shear could inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone.
Differing predictions from international weather models add to the uncertainty. The American model suggests the possibility of the trough strengthening into a tropical cyclone, whereas the Korean model and AI-based 'Pangu' predict that the trough will not develop further. These contrasting forecasts leave room for multiple scenarios as the week progresses.
The Hong Kong Observatory's extended forecast hints at a continuation of the intense heat for the next two to three days, followed by a dip in weather conditions from Monday, with sporadic showers and possible thunderstorms. The meteorological setup suggests that if a tropical cyclone does form, it might be steered towards Hainan Island and the Gulf of Tonkin area by the southwest side of the subtropical ridge.
From a climatic perspective, the latter half of June often sees the subtropical ridge extending westward over the northern part of the South China Sea and southeastern China. This could guide any potential tropical cyclone in the region towards a trajectory that includes Hainan Island to the northern Gulf of Tonkin.
香港下星期面對熱帶風暴可能性 雖然天氣預測參差不均
2024年6月21日 - 隨著夏至臨近,香港正面臨南中國海可能出現熱帶氣旋的預兆,儘管天氣模型預測參差不齊。香港天文台指出,未來數天由於廣東受副熱帶脊影響,氣溫將持續高企,但週末及下週的天氣發展存在不確定性。
在今天這個一年中最長的一天,市區氣溫預計將達33至34度攝氏。天文台最新的天氣分析《南中國海風暴蠢蠢欲動?》指出,隨著5月30日熱帶氣旋麥利西的來臨,颱風季節已經開始,6月初強勁的季候風也為華南帶來了一連串暴風雨。然而,隨著炎熱天氣的來臨,降雨量也出現了減少。
現在關注點轉移到一個橫跨南中國海中北部的寬廣低壓槽,預計將在週末影響該區,並可能在下週初逼近中國南部沿海。天文台指出,雖然高海溫為系統發展提供充足能量,但強烈的垂直風切可能會抑制熱帶氣旋的形成。
國際天氣模型的預測存在差異,美國模型預示這個低壓槽可能會加強為熱帶氣旋,而韓國模型和基於人工智能的「盤古」則預測低壓槽不會進一步發展。這些相互矛盾的預測為未來一週的天氣發展留下了多種可能性。
香港天文台的延伸預報暗示,未來2至3天高溫仍將持續,但從星期一開始,天氣狀況將有所下降,有零星陣雨和雷暴的可能。氣象形勢顯示,如果真的形成熱帶氣旋,它可能會受到副熱帶脊西南側的影響,被牽引至海南島和北部湄洲灣一帶。
從氣候角度來看,6月下旬副熱帶脊通常會向西延伸至南中國海北部及華南地區,這可能會引導任何潛在的熱帶氣旋向海南島至北部湄洲灣一帶移動。
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